A Theory of Models for Complex Ecology

Abstract: This proposal aims to develop new mathematical techniques to gain a deeper understanding of the “Theory of Models” in complex living systems. We will employ this formalism to explore how dynamic variations in the soil microbiome contribute to metabolic stability in the face of environmental changes. Effective models are essential for interpreting complex ecosystem functions in response to environmental disturbances, allowing us to quantify data and propose underlying mechanisms. Ecosystems offer an ideal setting to enhance our understanding of the mathematical constraints associated with the Physics of Models. We will develop new algorithms to facilitate data-driven model discovery and the identification of collective variables. Building upon groundbreaking research related to “Sloppy Models”~\cite{machta_parameter_2013}, our approach will harness the power of massively parallel experiments on soil microcosms, precise quantification of metabolite dynamics, controlled perturbations, and quantitative sequencing data. Our robust mathematical framework will enable us to develop ecological models that are easily interpretable.