Overview
Title: Was the United States COVID-19 Vaccination Policy Optimal?
Abstract:
I’ll begin by describing an approach that is more familiar to natural scientists than mathematicians, then development and validation of a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in the United States, and finally its application to evaluate pandemic vaccination policy. This work was motivated by the age-distribution of antibodies to nucleocapsid protein, indicative of infection, at the beginning of 2021’s fourth quarter. Scientists evaluate causal explanations for such patterns experimentally. For ethical reasons, epidemiologists experiment with model populations. We estimate or source parameters from the literature, compare predictions with accurate independent observations, and remedy the cause(s) of any disparities before exploring contra-factual scenarios. Analyses and simulations of this validated model suggest that vaccinating to reduce transmission as well as disease would not only have been more effective, but had multiple ancillary benefits. While our results may convince scientists, influencing public policy depends on convincing people who are skeptical of science. We hope that our model’s ability to reproduce the immune profile without fitting will reassure them.
This is joint work with Troy Day and Zhilan Feng.
About the Speaker:
John Glasser studied population biology, epidemiology, and biostatistics at Princeton, Duke, and Harvard Universities, followed by Epidemic Intelligence Service in reproductive health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a postdoctoral fellowship in mathematical biology with Richard Levins at Harvard, and career as an infectious disease epidemiologist in the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Currently, he is a Health Policy Scholar in Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health and an Associate Editor of Mathematical Biosciences. He is interested in philosophy of science and mechanistic modeling, primarily to design or evaluate and possibly improve policy to prevent or control respiratory diseases.
About the NITMB Seminar Series:
The NSF-Simons National Institute for Theory and Mathematics in Biology Seminar Series brings together a mix of mathematicians and biologists to foster discussion and collaboration between the two fields. The seminar series typically takes place on Fridays from 10am – 11am at NITMB. Talks are in-person with the ability to join remotely. Learn more at https://www.nitmb.org/nitmb-seminar-series
Join Webinar – https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/95512946631