Overview

Biological systems often operate with surprising precision across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, despite influence from noisy or weak signals. From immune cells detecting rare pathogens to animals navigating vast landscapes with minimal cues, these systems appear to leverage–rather than avoid–randomness. Traditional views treat noise as a disruptive force, but emerging research suggests that rare and extreme events can instead be harnessed as constructive elements, providing deterministic-like behavior in otherwise stochastic environments.
This workshop aims to bring together experts in applied stochastic processes and biological dynamics to explore the critical yet underdeveloped role of extreme and rare events in enabling reliable biological function. Key biological questions include how neurons transmit signals across crowded synapses, how immune cells detect rare pathogens, and how stochastic extinction events influence the dynamics of cancer or HIV. Beyond physical domains, the workshop will also address rare events in abstract biological spaces such as evolutionary fitness landscapes and decision-making processes. Mathematical approaches central to this work include extreme value theory, large deviation theory, ergodic theory, optimal transport, mean-field theory, and rare event sampling techniques. Through this interdisciplinary lens, the workshop aims to advance both theory and application in understanding how biological systems capitalize on rare events for robust function. The program will include research talks and lightning talks, and will have ample time for participants to foster collaborations.
Schedule
June 01 2026 Monday
9:45 am - 10:30 am
Coffee and Light Breakfast
10:30 am - 10:45 am
Welcome & Opening Remarks
10:45 am - 11:15 am
Jun Allard
Using stochastic calculus to study tethered molecular reactions
11:15 am - 11:45 am
Ethan Levien
Learning from extremes: asymptotics of the multiple instance learning problem and the EM algorithm
11:45 am - 12:15 pm
James MacLaurin
Large Deviations of Piecewise-Deterministic-Markov-Processes with Application to Stochastic Calcium Waves)
12:15 pm - 2:00 pm
Lunch
2:00 pm - 2:30 pm
Hyunjoong Kim
Rare inference failures and the cost of certainty: optimal sampling in collective foraging
2:30 pm - 3:00 pm
Bhargav Karamched
Entropic Collapse: How Combinatorial Geometry Alters Extreme First-Passage Times
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm
Jayson Cortez
A Mathematical Model of Plasmid Clustering Reveals a Trade-off Between Plasmid Maintenance and Cell-Cycle Time
3:30 pm - 3:40 pm
Group Photo
3:40 pm - 4:10 pm
Coffee Break
4:10 pm - 5:00 pm
Open Discussion / Collaboration
June 02 2026 Tuesday
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 10:00 am
Sidney Redner
Foraging and Starvation Dynamics
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:00 am
Aanjaneya Kumar
Dynamic redundancy and mortality in stochastic search
11:00 am - 11:30 am
Denis Boyer
Diffusion with stochastic synthesis and degradation: first-passage properties
11:30 am - 12:00 pm
Tom Chou
Ordered events in birth-death processes: cancer mutations and successive extinctions
12:00 pm - 12:30 pm
Lightning Talks (6 × 5 min)
- Alasdair Hastewell
- Jacob Madrid
- Tory Richardson
- Dervis Vural
- Frédéric Paquin-Lefebvre
- Eric DeGiuli
12:30 pm - 2:30 pm
Lunch
2:30 pm - 3:00 pm
Sean Lawley
Universality and ambiguity in extremes of diffusion
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm
Jay Newby
Extreme first passage times for populations of identical rare events
3:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Coffee Break
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Open Discussion / Collaboration
5:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Reception
June 03 2026 Wednesday
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:30 am
Daniel Gomez
Lévy Flights on a Periodic Interval
9:30 am - 10:00 am
Denis Grebenkov
Rarely studied scenarios in extreme events
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:00 am
Justin Tzou
Levy Flight Search Processes in 2D Geometries
11:00 am - 11:30 am
Anna Nelson
Modeling mechanisms of microtubule polarity in living neurons
11:30 am - 12:00 pm
Jinsu Kim
Rare events-driven stability of stochastic reaction systems
12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
Lunch
1:30 pm - 2:30 pm
Maria-Rita D'Orsogna
Mean First Passage Times of Higher-Dimensional Velocity Jump Processes
2:30 pm -
Free Time
June 04 2026 Thursday
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:30 am
Trevor GrandPre
Noise driven phase transitions in eco-evolutonary systems
9:30 am - 10:00 am
Lea Popovic
Sensitivity of stochastic dynamics in Autocatalytic Reaction Networks
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:00 am
Erin Beckman
Chase-escape with conversion
11:00 am - 11:30 am
James Holehouse
How Noise Shapes Transient Biological Function
11:30 am - 12:00 pm
6 x 5 minute presentations
12:00 pm - 2:00 pm
Lunch
2:00 pm - 2:30 pm
Andrew Mugler
The long tail of bacterial growth
2:30 pm - 3:00 pm
Ray Tung
Extreme First Passage Times with Fast Immigration
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm
Gregory Handy
A reduced continuous-time Markov chain for the inter-blip interval of IP3-receptor calcium release
3:30 pm - 3:45 pm
Evaluation
3:45 pm - 4:15 pm
Coffee Break
4:15 pm - 5:00 pm
Open Discussion / Collaboration
June 05 2026 Friday
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:30 am
Zachary Kilpatrick
Alarm Cascades as Extreme Events: Optimal Collective Escape in Animal Groups
9:30 am - 10:00 am
Nadia Loy
A Statistical Mechanics Approach to Describe Cell Reorientation Under Stretch: from stochastic processes to kinetic theory
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Jae Kyoung Kim
From Noise to Precision: Structural Buffering and the Law of Large Numbers as Principles for Robust Homeostasis and Rhythms
11:00 am - 11:45 am
Coffee Break/Refreshments
11:45 am - 1:30 pm
Open Discussion / Closing Remarks
Participants
Organizers
Krešo Josić – University of Houston
Alan Lindsay – University of Notre Dame
Samantha Linn – Imperial College London
Participants
Elie Alhajjar – RAND
Jun Allard – University of California, Irvine
Myles Allred – University of Illinois Chicago
Erin Beckman – Utah State University
Ratul Biswas – NITMB Fellow
Denis Boyer – Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Tom Chou – University of California, Los Angeles
Jayson Cortez – University of the Philippines Los Baños
Eric DeGiuli – Toronto Metropolitan University
Maria-Rita D’Orsogna – California State University, Northridge
Vincent Fiorino – University of Notre Dame
Zhijie (Sarah) Feng – Boston University
Federica Ferritti – NITMB
José Giral Barajas – Imperial College London
Daniel Gomez – University of New Mexico
Trevor GrandPre – Washington University
Denis Grebenkov – CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique
Gregory Handy – University of Minnesota
Alasdair Hastewell – NITMB Fellow
James Holehouse – Santa Fe Institute
Sarafa Iyaniwura – Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Takahiro Kanazawa – University of Chicago
Bhargav Karamched – Florida State University
Zack Kilpatrick – University of Colorado Boulder
Jae Kim – Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
Jinsu Kim – Pohang University of Science and Technology
Jinyoung Kim – Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Hyunjoong Kim – University of Cincinnati
Aanjaneya Kumar – Santa Fe Institute
Sean Lawley – University of Utah
Ethan Levien – Dartmouth College
Milton Lin – NITMB Fellow
Nadia Loy – Politecnico di Torino
James MacLaurin – New Jersey Institute of Technology
Jacod Madrid – Duke University
Jose Gabriel Mercado Vasquez – University of Chicago
Andrew Mugler – University of Pittsburgh
Anna Nelson – University of New Mexico
Jay Newby – University of Alberta
Frederic Paquin-Lefebvre – Ecole normale superieure
Virginia Pasour – US Army Research Office
Lea Popovic – Concordia University
Krishna Prahlaadh Ramachandran – University of Pittsburgh
Sid Redner – Santa Fe Institute
Tory Richardson – University of Utah
Mariya Savinov – NITMB Fellow
Laura Schaposnik – University of Illinois Chicago
Justin Tzou – Macquarie University
Hwai-Ray Tung – Princeton University
Dervis Vural – University of Notre Dame
Xueying Wang – NITMB
Recordings
Ethan Levien
Recorded on 06/01/2026
Title: Learning from extremes: asymptotics of the multiple instance learning problem and the EM algorithm
James MacLaurin
Recorded on 06/01/2026
Title: Large Deviations of Piecewise-Deterministic-Markov-Processes with Application to Stochastic Calcium Waves
Hyunjoong Kim
Recorded on 06/01/2026
Title: Rare inference failures and the cost of certainty: optimal sampling in collective foraging
Bhargav Karamched
Recorded on 06/01/2026
Title: Entropic Collapse: How Combinatorial Geometry Alters Extreme First-Passage Times
Jayson Cortez
Recorded on 06/01/2026
Title: A Mathematical Model of Plasmid Clustering Reveals a Trade-off Between Plasmid Maintenance and Cell-Cycle Time
Sidney Redner
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Foraging and Starvation Dynamics
Aanjaneya Kumar
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Dynamic redundancy and mortality in stochastic search
Denis Boyer
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Diffusion with stochastic synthesis and degradation: first-passage properties
Tom Chou
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Ordered events in birth-death processes: cancer mutations and successive extinctions
Sean Lawley
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Universality and ambiguity in extremes of diffusion
Jay Newby
Recorded on 06/02/2026
Title: Extreme first passage times for populations of identical rare events
Daniel Gomez
Recorded on 06/03/2026
Title: Lévy Flights on a Periodic Interval
Denis Grebenkov
Recorded on 06/03/2026
Title: Rarely studied scenarios in extreme events
Justin Tzou
Recorded on 06/03/2026
Title: Levy Flight Search Processes in 2D Geometries
Anna Nelson
Recorded on 06/03/2026
Title: Modeling mechanisms of microtubule polarity in living neurons
Trevor GrandPre
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: Trait-space patterning is dictated by the tempo and mode of mutation
Lea Popovic
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: Sensitivity of stochastic dynamics in Autocatalytic Reaction Networks
Erin Beckman
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: Chase-escape with conversion
James Holehouse
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: How Noise Shapes Transient Biological Function
Andrew Mugler
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: The long tail of bacterial growth
Ray Tung
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: Extreme First Passage Times with Fast Immigration
Gregory Handy
Recorded on 06/04/2026
Title: A reduced continuous-time Markov chain for the inter-blip interval of IP3-receptor calcium release
Zachary Kilpatrick
Recorded on 06/05/2026
Title: Social discounting enables fast & reliable collective escapes
Nadia Loy
Recorded on 06/05/2026
Title: A Statistical Mechanics Approach to Describe Cell Re-orientation under Stretch
Jae Kyoung Kim
Recorded on 06/05/2026
Title: From Noise to Precision: Structural Buffering and the Law of Large Numbers as Principles for Robust Homeostasis and Rhythms